Good post by Fred, on turnarounds and dark times in VC investments. I would say, in the best contrarian spirit, the best investments are made during the darkest times, when all you see are smouldering ashes of a business model.

It takes true vision and trust in fundamentals to go against everybody's advice to give up. Or, as with many entrepreneurs, it takes a contrarian pig-headedness that relishes going against the mainstream trend. The trickiest part of bucking the trend, however, is timing. And that is when you need luck.